BTC Price Analysis KW05 – Quo vadis, Upward Channel?

Since last week the Bitcoin is in a slight upward channel, which is currently being tested at 8,932.69 Euro.

The Bitcoin price has risen slightly this week

The price went into a slight upward channel, which however is currently developing into a sideways movement and whose support is being tested. The most important support is 8,720.82 Euro, the most important short-term resistance 9,403.00 Euro. The good thing first of all: The downward-channel shown in the last week (pale blue drawn) was breached. It was replaced by a slight upward channel, which is now being tested after a failed test of the resistance described by the EMA50 (marked light blue). The week was very quiet for crypto ratios and the Bitcoin price oscillated around 8,800 Euro +/-10%.

Last week the EMA20 from the weekly chart was mentioned as an important support: This support line has not been undercut since October 2015, in order to have a measure for the health of the Bitcoin in current times, so a look at this is worthwhile. In the chart, the EMA840 is inserted in pale green to have a corresponding indicator in the four-hour chart that roughly corresponds to the EMA20 on the 1W chart. As you can see, there is still some eerie silence; the price has not moved far from this line – but it has not fallen below it for a long time either.

The MACD (second panel from above) is just below zero, as is the MACD line (blue) below the signal (orange).

The RSI is at 44 and is therefore slightly bearish

Overall, the situation is therefore neutral to bearish according to price, trend and indicators. It is currently important to keep an eye on how the price behaves when testing the uptrend channel.

The most important support therefore corresponds to the 23.6% Fib retracement level (with regard to the price fall between January 20 and 23) of 8,720.82 Euros. This support is also only slightly above the mentioned EMA840. For traders who want to go long in the hope of a continuation of the upward channel, this support offers itself as a stop loss. Should the price fall under this support, the next important support would be at the weekly minimum, which is currently 8,111.00 Euro. A fall to this level would not only be unsatisfactory regarding the mentioned EMA840, but would also mean a re-entry into the old downward channel.

The most important resistance is described by the 50% Fib retracement level at 9,403.00 Euros. Breaking through this would raise the price above the EMA50 again and level the price towards a further resistance at the 78.6% Fib Retracement pattern, which is at 10,142.02 Euros. With a rise to this price level, the price would also have risen above the EMA100 again, which would argue for a longer-term upward trend.